Andrea Aparicio Castro

Andrea is a senior research fellow in Bayesian digital demography at the Demographic Science Unit (DSU) of the Nuffield Department of Population Health, which she joined in 2024. At the DSU, Andrea leads the development of statistical and computational Bayesian methods to estimate and nowcast populations in places affected by war and crisis, supporting international humanitarian response. 

Andrea has a PhD and an honorary research fellowship in social statistics from the University of Manchester. She is also accredited as a teaching fellow of the Advance Higher Education Institution. Her research focuses on developing statistical methods that integrate and combine traditional and new forms of data from multiple sources to estimate and forecast demographic events, with an emphasis on migration and mobility. She works primarily within the Bayesian framework, which enables her to correct measurement errors and systematic biases, as well as to impute and smooth out imperfect data. 

Before joining Oxford, Andrea worked on various research projects, including the EU-Horizon-2020 funded Future Migration Scenarios for Europe (FUME) initiative, the Internal Migration in Latin America and the Caribbean (MIALC) and the International Migration in Latin America and the Caribbean (IMILA) projects. She also contributed to developing the Evidence for Equality National Survey (EVENS) and the Rapid Assistance in Modelling the Pandemic (RAMP) group at the University of Manchester. Additionally, Andrea worked as an associate lecturer in social statistics at University College London and the National University of Colombia.