Global molecular epidemiology of HIV during 1990-2028

Background

The HIV pandemic remains a major global public health problem, with 40.8 million people living with HIV in 2024. Global HIV genetic diversity forms a major challenge to the development of an HIV vaccine as well as diagnostic, drug resistance, and viral load assays, which are essential for antiretroviral therapy programmes. HIV diversity also impacts HIV transmission and pathogenicity.

The global distribution of HIV-1 subtypes and recombinants is extremely complex and dynamic. sub-Saharan Africa accounts for two-thirds of all people living with HIV worldwide and has the greatest genetic diversity of HIV. The number and proportion of HIV recombinants is increasing, and country-level HIV diversity is increasing globally.

research experience, research methods and skills training

What the project will encompass in terms of research experience, research methods and skills training
Multiple factors likely contribute to the diversification of the HIV pandemic, including transportation networks, migration, founder effects, urbanisation, transmission networks, and population growth. The impact of viral properties such as transmission, disease progression, response to treatment, development of drug resistance, on the spread of HIV remains unclear.

The project aims to conduct spatiotemporal analyses at a global scale, using a database with >1 million subtyped HIV samples collected during 1990-2029. Analyses may include, but are not limited to: 1) Country-level diversity analysis for 1990-2028; 2) Estimation of regional and global distribution of HIV-1 subtypes and recombinants during 1990-2028; 3) Linkage of global HIV diversity data to transport and accessibility models to investigate the role of infrastructure and human migration in the spread of HIV; 4) Analysis to assess the global need for subtype-specific HIV vaccines, including differential vaccination scenarios and cost-benefit analyses; 5) Analyse associations between HIV-1 variants and markers of disease progression, and antiretroviral drug effectiveness and resistance. The exact research question and scope of the project will be determined through discussion with the student.

FIELD WORK, SECONDMENTS, INDUSTRY PLACEMENTS AND TRAINING

It is anticipated that the work will be conducted in Oxford and all necessary facilities, equipment and training, including database, analytic and statistical training, will be provided in Oxford. Some training will be provided in Southampton.

PROSPECTIVE STUDENT

A student with a background in medicine, infectious diseases, statistics or global/public health would be best suited to this project. The ideal candidate will have a Masters degree in a relevant area (e.g. statistics/epidemiology/infectious disease modelling). The project has a broad scope and candidates are encouraged to contact Dr Joris Hemelaar to work out a specific project proposal.