Cookies on this website
We use cookies to ensure that we give you the best experience on our website. If you click 'Continue' we'll assume that you are happy to receive all cookies and you won't see this message again. Click 'Find out more' for information on how to change your cookie settings.

PURPOSE: We developed an absolute risk model to identify individuals in the general population at elevated risk of pancreatic cancer. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Using data on 3,349 cases and 3,654 controls from the PanScan Consortium, we developed a relative risk model for men and women of European ancestry based on non-genetic and genetic risk factors for pancreatic cancer. We estimated absolute risks based on these relative risks and population incidence rates. RESULTS: Our risk model included current smoking (multivariable adjusted odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval: 2.20 [1.84-2.62]), heavy alcohol use (>3 drinks/day) (OR: 1.45 [1.19-1.76]), obesity (body mass index >30 kg/m(2)) (OR: 1.26 [1.09-1.45]), diabetes >3 years (nested case-control OR: 1.57 [1.13-2.18], case-control OR: 1.80 [1.40-2.32]), family history of pancreatic cancer (OR: 1.60 [1.20-2.12]), non-O ABO genotype (AO vs. OO genotype) (OR: 1.23 [1.10-1.37]) to (BB vs. OO genotype) (OR 1.58 [0.97-2.59]), rs3790844(chr1q32.1) (OR: 1.29 [1.19-1.40]), rs401681(5p15.33) (OR: 1.18 [1.10-1.26]) and rs9543325(13q22.1) (OR: 1.27 [1.18-1.36]). The areas under the ROC curve for risk models including only non-genetic factors, only genetic factors, and both non-genetic and genetic factors were 58%, 57% and 61%, respectively. We estimate that fewer than 3/1,000 U.S. non-Hispanic whites have more than a 5% predicted lifetime absolute risk. CONCLUSION: Although absolute risk modeling using established risk factors may help to identify a group of individuals at higher than average risk of pancreatic cancer, the immediate clinical utility of our model is limited. However, a risk model can increase awareness of the various risk factors for pancreatic cancer, including modifiable behaviors.

Original publication

DOI

10.1371/journal.pone.0072311

Type

Journal article

Journal

PLoS One

Publication Date

2013

Volume

8

Keywords

ABO Blood-Group System, Adenocarcinoma, Adult, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Case-Control Studies, Diabetes Complications, Europe, European Continental Ancestry Group, Female, Genotype, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Models, Statistical, Odds Ratio, Pancreatic Neoplasms, ROC Curve, Risk Factors, Smoking, United States