Estimating global injuries morbidity and mortality: methods and data used in the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study.
James SL., Castle CD., Dingels ZV., Fox JT., Hamilton EB., Liu Z., Roberts NLS., Sylte DO., Bertolacci GJ., Cunningham M., Henry NJ., LeGrand KE., Abdelalim A., Abdollahpour I., Abdulkader RS., Abedi A., Abegaz KH., Abosetugn AE., Abushouk AI., Adebayo OM., Adsuar JC., Advani SM., Agudelo-Botero M., Ahmad T., Ahmed MB., Ahmed R., Eddine Aichour MT., Alahdab F., Alanezi FM., Alema NM., Alemu BW., Alghnam SA., Ali BA., Ali S., Alinia C., Alipour V., Aljunid SM., Almasi-Hashiani A., Almasri NA., Altirkawi K., Abdeldayem Amer YS., Andrei CL., Ansari-Moghaddam A., T Antonio CA., Anvari D., Yaw Appiah SC., Arabloo J., Arab-Zozani M., Arefi Z., Aremu O., Ariani F., Arora A., Asaad M., Ayala Quintanilla BP., Ayano G., Ayanore MA., Azarian G., Badawi A., Badiye AD., Baig AA., Bairwa M., Bakhtiari A., Balachandran A., Banach M., Banerjee SK., Banik PC., Banstola A., Barker-Collo SL., Bärnighausen TW., Barzegar A., Bayati M., Bazargan-Hejazi S., Bedi N., Behzadifar M., Belete H., Bennett DA., Bensenor IM., Berhe K., Bhagavathula AS., Bhardwaj P., Bhat AG., Bhattacharyya K., Bhutta ZA., Bibi S., Bijani A., Boloor A., Borges G., Borschmann R., Borzì AM., Boufous S., Braithwaite D., Briko NI., Brugha T., Budhathoki SS., Car J., Cárdenas R., Carvalho F., Castaldelli-Maia JM., Castañeda-Orjuela CA., Castelpietra G., Catalá-López F., Cerin E., Chandan JS., Chapman JR., Chattu VK., Chattu SK., Chatziralli I., Chaudhary N., Cho DY., Choi J-YJ., Kabir Chowdhury MA., Christopher DJ., Chu D-T., Cicuttini FM., Coelho JM., Costa VM., Dahlawi SMA., Daryani A., Dávila-Cervantes CA., Leo DD., Demeke FM., Demoz GT., Demsie DG., Deribe K., Desai R., Nasab MD., Silva DDD., Dibaji Forooshani ZS., Do HT., Doyle KE., Driscoll TR., Dubljanin E., Adema BD., Eagan AW., Elemineh DA., El-Jaafary SI., El-Khatib Z., Ellingsen CL., Zaki MES., Eskandarieh S., Eyawo O., Faris PS., Faro A., Farzadfar F., Fereshtehnejad S-M., Fernandes E., Ferrara P., Fischer F., Folayan MO., Fomenkov AA., Foroutan M., Francis JM., Franklin RC., Fukumoto T., Geberemariyam BS., Gebremariam H., Gebremedhin KB., Gebremeskel LG., Gebremeskel GG., Gebremichael B., Gedefaw GA., Geta B., Getenet AB., Ghafourifard M., Ghamari F., Gheshlagh RG., Gholamian A., Gilani SA., Gill TK., Goudarzian AH., Goulart AC., Grada A., Grivna M., Guimarães RA., Guo Y., Gupta G., Haagsma JA., Hall BJ., Hamadeh RR., Hamidi S., Handiso DW., Haro JM., Hasanzadeh A., Hassan S., Hassanipour S., Hassankhani H., Hassen HY., Havmoeller R., Hendrie D., Heydarpour F., Híjar M., Ho HC., Hoang CL., Hole MK., Holla R., Hossain N., Hosseinzadeh M., Hostiuc S., Hu G., Ibitoye SE., Ilesanmi OS., Inbaraj LR., Naghibi Irvani SS., Mofizul Islam M., Shariful Islam SM., Ivers RQ., Jahani MA., Jakovljevic M., Jalilian F., Jayaraman S., Jayatilleke AU., Jha RP., John-Akinola YO., Jonas JB., Jones KM., Joseph N., Joukar F., Jozwiak JJ., Jungari SB., Jürisson M., Kabir A., Kahsay A., Kalankesh LR., Kalhor R., Kamil TA., Kanchan T., Kapoor N., Karami M., Kasaeian A., Kassaye HG., Kavetskyy T., Kayode GA., Keiyoro PN., Kelbore AG., Khader YS., Khafaie MA., Khalid N., Khalil IA., Khalilov R., Khan M., Khan EA., Khan J., Khanna T., Khazaei S., Khazaie H., Khundkar R., Kiirithio DN., Kim Y-E., Kim YJ., Kim D., Kisa S., Kisa A., Komaki H., Kondlahalli SKM., Koolivand A., Korshunov VA., Koyanagi A., Kraemer MUG., Krishan K., Defo BK., Bicer BK., Kugbey N., Kumar N., Kumar M., Kumar V., Kumar N., Kumaresh G., Lami FH., Lansingh VC., Lasrado S., Latifi A., Lauriola P., Vecchia CL., Leasher JL., Huey Lee SW., Li S., Liu X., Lopez AD., Lotufo PA., Lyons RA., Machado DB., Madadin M., Abd El Razek MM., Mahotra NB., Majdan M., Majeed A., Maled V., Malta DC., Manafi N., Manafi A., Manda A-L., Manjunatha N., Mansour-Ghanaei F., Mansournia MA., Maravilla JC., Mason-Jones AJ., Masoumi SZ., Massenburg BB., Maulik PK., Mehndiratta MM., Melketsedik ZA., Memiah PTN., Mendoza W., Menezes RG., Mengesha MM., Meretoja TJ., Meretoja A., Merie HE., Mestrovic T., Miazgowski B., Miazgowski T., Miller TR., Mini GK., Mirica A., Mirrakhimov EM., Mirzaei-Alavijeh M., Mithra P., Moazen B., Moghadaszadeh M., Mohamadi E., Mohammad Y., Darwesh AM., Mohammadian-Hafshejani A., Mohammadpourhodki R., Mohammed S., Mohammed JA., Mohebi F., Mohseni Bandpei MA., Molokhia M., Monasta L., Moodley Y., Moradi M., Moradi G., Moradi-Lakeh M., Moradzadeh R., Morawska L., Velásquez IM., Morrison SD., Mossie TB., Muluneh AG., Musa KI., Mustafa G., Naderi M., Nagarajan AJ., Naik G., Naimzada MD., Najafi F., Nangia V., Nascimento BR., Naserbakht M., Nayak V., Nazari J., Ndwandwe DE., Negoi I., Ngunjiri JW., Nguyen TH., Nguyen CT., Nguyen DN., Thi Nguyen HL., Nikbakhsh R., Anggraini Ningrum DN., Nnaji CA., Ofori-Asenso R., Ogbo FA., Oghenetega OB., Oh I-H., Olagunju AT., Olagunju TO., Bali AO., Onwujekwe OE., Orpana HM., Ota E., Otstavnov N., Otstavnov SS., P A M., Padubidri JR., Pakhale S., Pakshir K., Panda-Jonas S., Park E-K., Patel SK., Pathak A., Pati S., Paulos K., Peden AE., Filipino Pepito VC., Pereira J., Phillips MR., Polibin RV., Polinder S., Pourmalek F., Pourshams A., Poustchi H., Prakash S., Angga Pribadi DR., Puri P., Syed ZQ., Rabiee N., Rabiee M., Radfar A., Rafay A., Rafiee A., Rafiei A., Rahim F., Rahimi S., Rahman MA., Rajabpour-Sanati A., Rajati F., Rakovac I., Rao SJ., Rashedi V., Rastogi P., Rathi P., Rawaf S., Rawal L., Rawassizadeh R., Renjith V., Resnikoff S., Rezapour A., Ribeiro AI., Rickard J., Rios González CM., Roever L., Ronfani L., Roshandel G., Saddik B., Safarpour H., Safdarian M., Mohammad Sajadi S., Salamati P., Rashad Salem MR., Salem H., Salz I., Samy AM., Sanabria J., Riera LS., Santric Milicevic MM., Sarker AR., Sarveazad A., Sathian B., Sawhney M., Sayyah M., Schwebel DC., Seedat S., Senthilkumaran S., Seyedmousavi S., Sha F., Shaahmadi F., Shahabi S., Shaikh MA., Shams-Beyranvand M., Sheikh A., Shigematsu M., Shin JI., Shiri R., Siabani S., Sigfusdottir ID., Singh JA., Singh PK., Sinha DN., Soheili A., Soriano JB., Sorrie MB., Soyiri IN., Stokes MA., Sufiyan MB., Sykes BL., Tabarés-Seisdedos R., Tabb KM., Taddele BW., Tefera YM., Tehrani-Banihashemi A., Tekulu GH., Tesema Tesema AK., Tesfay BE., Thapar R., Titova MV., Tlaye KG., Tohidinik HR., Topor-Madry R., Tran KB., Tran BX., Tripathy JP., Tsai AC., Tsatsakis A., Car LT., Ullah I., Ullah S., Unnikrishnan B., Upadhyay E., Uthman OA., Valdez PR., Vasankari TJ., Veisani Y., Venketasubramanian N., Violante FS., Vlassov V., Waheed Y., Wang Y-P., Wiangkham T., Wolde HF., Woldeyes DH., Wondmeneh TG., Wondmieneh AB., Wu A-M., Wyper GMA., Yadav R., Yadollahpour A., Yano Y., Yaya S., Yazdi-Feyzabadi V., Ye P., Yip P., Yisma E., Yonemoto N., Yoon S-J., Youm Y., Younis MZ., Yousefi Z., Yu C., Yu Y., Moghadam TZ., Zaidi Z., Zaman SB., Zamani M., Zandian H., Zarei F., Zhang Z-J., Zhang Y., Ziapour A., Zodpey S., Dandona R., Dharmaratne SD., Hay SI., Mokdad AH., Pigott DM., Reiner RC., Vos T.
BACKGROUND: While there is a long history of measuring death and disability from injuries, modern research methods must account for the wide spectrum of disability that can occur in an injury, and must provide estimates with sufficient demographic, geographical and temporal detail to be useful for policy makers. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study used methods to provide highly detailed estimates of global injury burden that meet these criteria. METHODS: In this study, we report and discuss the methods used in GBD 2017 for injury morbidity and mortality burden estimation. In summary, these methods included estimating cause-specific mortality for every cause of injury, and then estimating incidence for every cause of injury. Non-fatal disability for each cause is then calculated based on the probabilities of suffering from different types of bodily injury experienced. RESULTS: GBD 2017 produced morbidity and mortality estimates for 38 causes of injury. Estimates were produced in terms of incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, cause-specific mortality, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life-years for a 28-year period for 22 age groups, 195 countries and both sexes. CONCLUSIONS: GBD 2017 demonstrated a complex and sophisticated series of analytical steps using the largest known database of morbidity and mortality data on injuries. GBD 2017 results should be used to help inform injury prevention policy making and resource allocation. We also identify important avenues for improving injury burden estimation in the future.