Estimate of 2009 H1N1 influenza cases in Shenzhen--the biggest migratory city in China.
Xie X., Lu SQY., Cheng JQ., Cheng XW., Xu ZH., Mou J., Mei SJ., Kong DF., Wang X., Li Y., Fellmeth G., Ma HW.
The 2009 novel H1N1 influenza pandemic had a significant impact on Shenzhen's population with 2063 laboratory-confirmed human H1N1 cases and five deaths being reported. We used parameters from two population-based surveys and the Shenzhen Influenza Surveillance System to estimate the total number of H1N1 influenza infections in Shenzhen in the 2009 pandemic. The attack rate of influenza-like illness (ILI) in family households was 11·2% (95% CI 9·4-13·0), with 80·2% (95% CI 77·8-82·5) seeking medical care. The ILI attack rate in workers was 38·1% (95% CI 34·3-41·7) with 72·5% (95% CI 66·9-78·0) seeking medical care. The average H1N1 positive rate in individuals reporting ILI and testing by polymerase chain reaction was 22·7%. A total of 611 000-768 000 people, or 4·7-5·9% of the Shenzhen population, are estimated to have experienced H1N1 influenza. The estimated total number of cases of H1N1 is likely to be 330 times greater than the number of laboratory-confirmed cases.